The Failure of the 28-Clause Peace Initiative for Ukraine: How Peace Negotiations Continue to Stumble

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.