Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."